The aged care market is consolidating. Is your positioning strong enough to compete?

The residential aged care market is consolidating, and it is happening faster than most sector leaders anticipated.

Between 2017 and 2024, the number of small residential care services fell by 29%. Over the same period, the number of large services increased by 34%. The top 25 providers now account for close to half of all operational places. The number of residential aged care providers fell from 663 in FY23 to 642 in FY24, a reduction of 21 providers in a single year, reflecting a combination of exits, mergers and consolidations.

The competitive pressure is concentrating

For providers still operating independently, this is not a trend to watch from a distance. It is the environment they are competing in right now.

At the same time, families are arriving at provider selection better informed than at any previous point. Star Ratings, publicly visible quality outcomes under the strengthened standards introduced in November 2025, and AI-assisted research tools mean that a family can complete a meaningful comparison of providers before making a single phone call.

The providers who look and sound the same as everyone else are competing on price by default. In an environment where fees are now more complex and more public than they have ever been, that is a precarious place to be.

Size does not automatically mean clearer positioning

Larger providers have greater marketing resources, but scale does not guarantee clarity. Many of the largest operators in the sector still default to the same generic language: person-centred care, homelike environments, dedicated teams.

A mid-sized provider with a genuine specialism in dementia care, a strong cultural or language community, or a well-articulated approach to family communication can out-position a national operator in any local market. But only if that story is told clearly and consistently, across every touchpoint a family encounters before they pick up the phone. That is the work at the heart of aged care positioning.

What clarity actually requires

Clarity and specificity do not require a large marketing department. They require honest answers to the questions families are already asking.

What does your community do well, specifically? What kind of person thrives in your care? How do you handle the conversations that matter most about changing care needs, about pricing, about what families can expect day to day?

Providers who have worked that out are easier to find, easier to evaluate, and easier to choose. In a market with fewer providers and more discerning families, that advantage compounds.

The question worth sitting with

What does your community look like to a family who has already done two hours of research before picking up the phone?

If the answer is that they would find a description that could apply to almost anyone, that is the problem to solve before the next occupancy cycle.

I work with aged care providers on positioning, communications and marketing strategy. If you would like a strategic conversation about where your organisation sits in this market, start here. If you would prefer a self-guided starting point, the free positioning diagnostic is a good place to begin.

Providers, services and places in aged care, 30 June 2024 (AIHW GEN Aged Care Data, gen-agedcaredata.gov.au) — small services decreased 29%, large services increased 34% between 2017 and 2024.

KPMG Aged Care Market Analysis 2025 (kpmg.com/au), via Australian Ageing Agenda (australianageingagenda.com.au) — residential aged care providers fell from 663 in FY23 to 642 in FY24; top 25 provider market share figure.